Israel’s commitment to the Druze community of Syria, both near the Golan and further out in Suweida appear to be rock solid as videos have surfaced showing Israel shipping in humanitarian supplies to both places. Israel has also offered work permits for the Druze in both areas to enter Israel to help with construction and farms.
In between the two Druze areas sits the province of Daraa, a Sunni Muslim majority area that blocks the contiguity of the Syrian Druze populace. If the Druze end up gaining an autonomous region that is federalized and protected by Israel, then Daraa is a challenge.
However, the Muslims in Daraa are not like the ones fighting for Jolani’s HTS who now run Syria. Most are from Bedouin tribes that moved up from the southern side of the Yarmouk in Jordan and settled in the Daraa region. These residents actually fled to Jordan as refugees. The ones that stayed do not want to be ruled by Jolani or his Jihadist supporters and this is why they are fighting.
In the current flare up, Jolani’s regime forces have clashed with the Daraa residents and have not only been rebuffed, but suffered casualties. There is a strong possibility that Daraa too will opt to be an autonomous region protected by Israel – if so, it would mark a watershed moment in the Middle East and enable Israel push far to to the East of the Golan.
Why the world is waiting for Israel’s next moves in Gaza, a coalition of indigenous minorities in the Middle East is forming with Israel as its main fulcrum.