Today, it is easy to laugh at the candidate of the Democratic Party. It seems almost inevitable – a nomination of Joe Biden to be the candidate for the Presidency. Will the United States perhaps elect a President who struggles with basic issues due to his age or medical situation? It could happen. FDR was probably less healthy than Biden when he was reelected in 1944. And therefore, the Democrat Vice Presidential nominee may turn out to be the most consequential nomination since Harry S. Truman was nominated to be on the ticket with FDR back in 1944. Remember that Truman turned out to be one of the most consequential Presidents in all of history, and he was termed the accidental President.
President Trump is the kind of candidate that narrows the undecided vote. In general, over the last few decades, there are around 40% of the voters who lean heavily to the Republican side and 40% who lean heavily to the left. Then, it is the 20% in the middle – especially those in the States that are toss-ups like Florida and Michigan – that determine the winner. President Trump brings the numbers up to around 45% who will definitely vote for him and 45% who will definitely not. There are only around 10% that are up for grabs. And it seems pretty clear that by November, the economy will not be flying high. In the best case scenario, people will still be hurting and will still be looking for a change. President Trump’s lack of empathy for those hurting may push them towards a Joe Biden – Kamala Harris ticket. If it is not Harris, then there doesn’t seem to be anybody else who fits the bill. The Vice Presidential nominee in this situation will shore up undecided votes in swing states like never before. Just like the evangelical voters will come out in droves because Mike Pence reassures them that President Trump is there guy, Kamala Harris may succeed in bringing out the minority and female vote in critical states. She may very well be leading this country over the next few years.
We can laugh at Joe Biden’s gaffes now, but this is a very serious matter. This election will be about which ticket reassures Americans about their economic future. President Trump will do a great job of ridiculing Joe Biden and that may be enough to bring him to victory. But, a strategy that takes on the VP candidate for the Democratic ticket will be just as important in order to weaken the turnout against President Trump.